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Due to the rapid development of artificial intelligence, many people finally begin to understand and accept the fact that AI is not far away from us, and it is changing our world. When looking at the opportunity of LLM (large language model), the author thinks deeply about three questions: what is the next development future of LLM, which landing directions are more promising, and what preparations we should make. I hope I can inspire you.

Recently, I have been looking at LLM opportunities myself, and I have had a lot of exchanges with entrepreneurs, investors and practitioners. The general feeling is "I know he is fine, but what should I do?" . In the process of being dragged by OpenAI, many opportunities have emerged, and everyone is in an excited and confused state.

Especially after OpenAI teamed up with Microsoft to knock over the text application (Jasper/Grammarly), office software (Microsoft Copilot), development framework (OpenAI plug-in for langchain) and low code (news just released today), this confusion further superimposed the fear of the centralized LLM giant whale turning over.

After deep thinking, I summed up these three questions and answered them from the bottom essence. He will be the core framework for me to look at LLM opportunities next, and I hope it will help you. Welcome to like, forward and see.

1. What is the next development future of LLM?
2. Which landing directions are more promising?
3. What preparations should we make?

I made a prediction of LLM’s future on February 26th and March 2nd respectively, and the correct rate was nearly 100%. One of them was: Heavy: Counting the seven directions, who will give birth to the Eureka moment in ChatGPT field (only one of the seven directions has not been awarded).

But a friend asked me an impressive question, "How did you make these predictions?" . This is the difference between knowing it and knowing it. At that time, I couldn’t answer it. Now I have a preliminary framework after thinking and share it with you:

1. What problems need to be solved now?
2. What attempts can bring more space (and of course more problems to be solved)
3. Are these directions technically feasible?
4. 4. Is the commercial value of these directions worth investing in to change?

Therefore, I divide the future of LLM into two categories: status quo repair and development increment. At the same time, both technical and commercial judgments are applied for calibration.

Status quo restoration

No.1 high reasoning cost

At present, the price of OpenAI GPT-3 Davanci with the best performance is 0.02 USD /1Ktoken (about 3,800 Chinese characters/yuan), and the price of GPT-3.5 turbo after specialized fine-tuning is 0.002 USD/1 kToken (38,000 Chinese characters/yuan). At the same time, Baidu ERNIE Bot in China is said to have an API price of 0.12 yuan /1Ktoken, which is slightly cheaper than the Davanci version.

The purpose of listing so many data is to tell you intuitively how expensive the reasoning cost is now, and only a few businesses can meet the scissors difference of this price/cost.

Based on this problem, several sub-directions can be extended:

Open-source flat-substitution small models, such as Meta open-source LLama and extended Alpaca-lora, ColossalChat, etc., align the effect of hundreds of billions of parameters at a smaller parameter level (10B or 100B) through targeted fine-tuning.

Context compression reduces the length of context by semantic retrieval after file segmentation, or by merging long text segments. ChatPDF, for example, and even bing (although he didn’t make it public, I guess so).

The optimization of LLM itself, such as NVIDIA’s work at the chip level, and the optimization of algorithm, model structure and task scheduling.

It can be said that the Eight Immortals have crossed the sea, showing their magical powers. While the core manufacturers of big languages are doing optimization, small players are also desperately trying to reduce costs through various means. In order for LLM to further step into thousands of households and usher in the outbreak of SD algorithm on AI painting side, reasoning cost must be the most important first direction.

And it will be solved quickly, no matter from LLM itself, or the technical overlap of context compression, or the open source flat model, his various technical prospects are realistic. So if OpenAI announces a price cut again on April 1st, don’t be surprised, it’s a routine operation.

No.2 vertical adaptation problem

At present, there are several problems in fine-tuning some LLM dedicated to vertical fields:

The head model is expensive: the call price of Davanci basic model of OpenAI is $0.02 /1Ktoken, but the use price of the model after fine-tuning becomes $0.12 /1Ktoken, which is six times higher.

In fact, the new fine-tuning model based on Lora mechanism (freezing most model parameters and fine-tuning only a few parameters) can’t cost as much as six times. I suspect that OpenAI is forcing users to fine-tune the low-order model through this extremely high pricing strategy (after fine-tuning the lower-order model, although the price is still 6 times higher, it is only 60% of the price of the upper-level model), thus obtaining precious data of micro-adaptation of the low-order model. Therefore, there is theoretically room for OpenAI to lower the price of fine-tuning models.

Now, the emergence of open source leveling model may impact this strategy of OpenAI, and its fine-tuning price may be adjusted accordingly, and it may also open its own small model leveling. But this situation is actually the same as the launch of LLM by Google. It is very difficult to make a decision by digging your own roots.

On the other hand, the task ability of fine-tuning is limited. At present, the common fine-tuning is mainly in general fields, such as better marketing copy writing, friendlier/more professional/more serious answering methods, targeted text extraction, emotional classification and other traditional NLP tasks. The really urgent knowledge updating effect is very poor, that is, let LLM specially remember my professional data and answer honestly, which is one of the reasons why ChatGPT still remembers it only 21 years ago.

Attention loss in the context of No.3

Here, it is necessary to briefly explain what context and attention are. You will see that the original version of GPT is supported by token context around 2K, GPT-3 era becomes 4K, and GPT-4 era becomes 8K and 32K.

So why is context a problem to be solved step by step? Because its essence is that when you enter a long context (including your instructions, your supplementary knowledge, your examples, etc.), LLM needs to have a comprehensive understanding of your context and use a technology called "attention" to calculate the relationship between each word, even between the first word you enter and the last word you answer.

When LLM generates the answer, he will calculate which word should be generated this time to form the answer based on the attention weight. And this attention weight is to calculate all the contextual texts you input. The more texts, the more computing resources he needs (which is why OpenAI charges with token, and the input texts also cost money).

After understanding the context and attention, we return to this question-so when I calculate all the attention, which attention is more important?

This is the so-called attention out of control, or not to control me at all. Generally speaking, if I want you to remember some key information, I will mark that font in red and enlarge it 10 times.

In LLM technology, there are actually similar means. In the GPT-3.5 turbo API (version of CHatGPT), they defined a field called System, which can be regarded as allowing developers to define the most critical attention points by themselves. But in practice, the content in the system is always forgotten, and only one field to carry it is not enough to meet the rich needs of the business.

Therefore, controllable, adaptable and adjustable custom attention is a very key optimization point, which may appear in subsequent versions.

No.4 security complement

When I wrote this article, the open letter initiated by Musk has been signed by 1,000 people. The general content is "AI is terrible. You (OpenAI) are not allowed to iterate again until you find a constraint method!" .

In terms of LLM security, in fact, OpenAI has established the first set of standards, which are mainly divided into two aspects:

Illusion, that is, don’t answer what you don’t know. I don’t know whether it is wisdom or not.

Toxic, don’t be racist, don’t be sexist, don’t be geographical, don’t lead to do negative things, stay healthy in the sunshine, be a good AI and so on.

In their public papers, GPT-4 was put in place in August 2022 and was released in March 2023, all to solve the above security problems.

My view on this direction is: a copy of western environmental protection issues.

Is he a problem? Yes Why do people say this question? There are real concerns and interests. Will he really be executed? The leader uses it to beat his followers, and the followers use it to denounce the leader. The two sides will definitely wave big sticks and get into a ball (I thought it would be a while).

He is slightly different from environmental protection: there is no technical realization problem in environmental protection, and more is the entanglement of interests. And LLM’s hallucination and toxicity can’t be completely solved. I’m totally on boss Yang’s side in this judgment.

There is an interesting company, Anthropic, whose members come from entrepreneurs who have left OpenAI. At first, I was invested by Google, and I launched a Poe application with OpenAI for comparison. The effect is really poor. Moreover, his gold owner Google also made efforts to do it himself, and the whole situation was stormy. But he found a suitable way, stood in the field of LLM security, and introduced the so-called RLAIF (human feedback constraint security becomes AI feedback constraint security).

If I say, this is the wind outlet of the times, environmental protection problems can’t be solved, but environmental protection will support a huge market, and a top stream like environmental protection girls will be born.

No.5 can be explained

This is the only prediction that I won’t be rewarded by reality in my 7-direction articles. But I still think this is a very important direction, and interpretation is very important in all decision-making businesses.

I haven’t been doing AI in recent years, but I’m doing search recommendation. You can think of this search recommendation as a kind of AI decision (AI decides what comes before you). In this field, the higher the action cost, the more interpretability and information endorsement are needed.

For example, if you are recommended to watch a short video, your cost is almost zero, and the price of not being allowed is to take your fingers away; It is recommended that you watch a movie, and your cost is several tens of dollars+two hours of on-site viewing. If you are not standard, you will get a bad mood. I recommend you to buy financial products. Your cost is a pile of money, and it is not standard to lose this money.

You will find that the higher the action cost, the more you need to recommend explanations and more abundant information endorsement (film reviews, directors, highlights, etc.). LLM is also like this. If it wants to develop further, it must be more deeply involved in human life, and further take over and assist things with high action costs. The lack of explanation in this process is a super big problem.

From the pure LLM technology itself, I am not optimistic that it will be solved-the interpretability of neural networks is a super-old problem, not to mention the interpretability of LLM, a comprehensive technology. But it can always be partially alleviated by Cot, product design, source location, etc., which may also become a paradigm that all LLM designs will involve in the future.

No.6 essence learning

This concept comes from the following article, which is the LLM iterative concept https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hQmvltuMlClBonM6UJmtLg shared by OpenAI technicians.

In the article, OpenAI personnel think that LLM’s correct approach is: "Make clear the goal (task) of AGI basic model and collect as many effective data as possible, and then use all possible lossless compression methods to get the minimum description length of task method." My understanding is to learn the essence, not the superficial knowledge.

The whole idea is a bit like my sharing framework in this paper. It is better to give you a thinking framework for acquiring and analyzing this knowledge than to give you superficial knowledge. In philosophical terms, apriori is better than posteriori. For example, I know that Trump is the president of the United States. It is better for me to understand the concepts of president and the United States, and then get information through Bing to integrate.

This is also the reason why I think OpenAI gives up further stacking knowledge and uses external tools (calculator, wiki, Bing) to improve its ability. He didn’t compromise the reality, but always adhered to the best strategy in his mind, just as he has always adhered to the GPT direction in recent years.

But unfortunately, even if he found some new knowledge, he probably wouldn’t send paper.

No.7 business security

This part of the logic is very simple. Excluding the cost issue, many enterprises are still facing data security issues. And this security problem may be to the extent that cloud privatization can’t solve it.

Therefore, the next focus of OpenAI will definitely include the privatization and opening up of the cloud together with Azure, but at the same time, a large number of small model manufacturers (those who have changed their own research based on the open source model) will certainly usher in their own opportunities.

This is really simple. I don’t want to say anything more. It’s just that this fact hasn’t happened yet. It’s barely a prediction, so I’ll put it up and write it down.

No.8 lower the threshold

Part of the threshold comes from the cost, which has been mentioned in the first chapter.

The second part of the threshold comes from various development frameworks, such as langchain or Colossal-AI, which supports developers to realize applications more conveniently.

I’m not sure about the third part of the threshold. I’m a little suspicious that it’s an APP workflow with low code +AI painting+development framework. That is, everyone can realize their own APP at a very low cost in the future.

This part of OpenAI may end in person, especially the fact that everyone is a product manager and everyone can build their own APP, which is of great significance.

Development increment

No.1 understanding (multimodal)

In Microsoft’s KOSMOS-1 paper (that is, the one where I found the multimodal future), his example is not only image understanding, but also audio and video beside it, which is easy for everyone to foresee at present.

But I will add another small source: gyroscope, touch (screen), temperature, infrared, light, humidity and so on.

In fact, these concepts are quite different from images, audio and video. They do not have rich human information, and usually exist in a clear data format (for example, temperature = 17 C). After LLM landed in the new terminal such as mobile phone, he will get much more information than images, audio and video, and also include the quantitative information traditionally used by more than N people to describe the objective environment.

On the contrary, I am looking forward to the application of these small sources, because their information structure is very simple, basically in common code formats, and their existing capabilities can be quickly compatible, which is much simpler than the semantic integration of audio and video.

In addition, there is a super distant future (I think it’s far away … maybe a press conference will be held in a few days). At present, the autopilot side is modeling the real world in a sense, so if the real 3D world can be understood by LLM, then the whole world will be further unveiled to LLM.

No.2 intervention

The next step in understanding is action.

First of all, ChatGPT plug-in is an intervention to some extent, but it is limited by security risks. OpenAI has taken control and kept all the steps in the previous step (book the air ticket, and do the last step yourself).

Secondly, today’s news (No.28), OpenAI invested in the Norwegian robot company 1x; And before that, he also had related technology accumulation in mechanical arm (Dactyl series).

However, LLM’s action to solve the security problem is in great conflict with his current security problem. As mentioned in the explanatory part, AI only helps us to make decisions, and we all have such high requirements, not to mention that he wants to directly intervene in the world now?

I don’t expect this part in the short term. I think it is difficult to solve the technical security problem. After all, no one wants to be shaved off by a shaving robot.

No.3 multi-terminal integration

All Microsoft’s current attempts are around the PC: bing, office Family Bucket, GitHub. Therefore, in this after the war-fires of three months, the killer products are basically the application of productivity.

The remaining terminals, such as mobile phones, VR, headphones, speakers, etc., are actually still in a slow adaptation period.

One reason is that the head terminal manufacturers haven’t completely given up, and they want to do it themselves to see if they can break through. On the other hand, they may get the information late. Microsoft’s whole hands-on preparation may have been tried since last August, and most terminal manufacturers may wait until the release of ChatGPT on November 30 to react.

Everyone has reached a consensus on this trend. I won’t talk about his logic, but focus on the places that should be paid attention to in this direction:

1. To see more information input, such as the gyroscope, temperature and humidity, touch and so on that PC does not have, as I mentioned earlier.

2. Look at the differences in device characteristics. For example, the LBS of a mobile phone and the LBS of a PC are essentially two things, and the image input on a mobile phone and the image input on a PC are also two things. Mobile phones have the property of following time and space, which is different from the fixed PC, so we can’t simply look at the new device port with the cognition on the PC side.

3. Look at the low-cost terminal scheme, the small model of single-machine running (poor effect), can it be used in terminal running?

4. To see the new interactive paradigm, what is the final answer of CUI+GUI? Don’t be limited by the current dialog box. You should know that at the beginning of the mobile era, every APP looked exactly like the PC.

No.4 plug-in with tied wings

After the release of the ChatGPT plug-in, I didn’t write an article, because it was not as surprising as I thought.

At present, he is closer to Alexa Echo’s Skill Store than Apple’s Apple Store.

The difference between the two is that Apple’s own characteristics (mobile, gyro, touch, real-time LBS, etc.) provide a wide range of creativity for many apps based on it, while Skill Store provides limited characteristics, and because the input and output are single (voice), it has a very big limit (so the screen is added later).

To further develop, on the one hand, the image mode of GPT-4 needs to be open, on the other hand, ChatGPT needs to fall into more application terminals, get more information input from the terminals, and master more output means.

The plug-in market must be viewed in this way. LLM is the core competence, but this core competence is also limited by the input (information acquisition) and output (interactive means) of the terminal, so the key is not what the plug-in can do now, but what the plug-in can do in the future.

This time I asked myself, "What is the basis of your analysis? Why do you think this is good and that is bad? " , share my framework with you below:

1. What is the fundamental difference between this technology and the past?

Just like the analysis of speakers, mobile phones and PCs in the plug-in part, let’s first look at the essential changes brought by technology:

• First, a more mature CUI can let LLM do anything for you, which is basically like an arm’s command (whether you can do it or not, say it to two).
• Second, strong understanding ability is not limited to words, but also includes images, audio, video and 3D.
• Third, powerful generation ability is not limited to content generation, but also includes code (application) and data (marked data).
• Fourth, a certain reasoning ability, the ability to do basic logical reasoning, such as what to do first and what to do last, can help you string things together (I’m not talking about doing math problems, haha, not that kind of reasoning).
• Fifth, man-machine trust, human beings used to have malicious contact with AI, that is, I don’t believe that you are an individual and will do all kinds of extreme tests, so the trust (or partial trust) brought by new technologies will be an essential change.

2. Is the direction you are looking at stock or increment?

Stock market refers to the market that existed before, such as customer service, education and games. Generally speaking, the barrier of stock market lies in senior business logic, and there are already many senior players. When the new technology comes, the old players will embrace each other and enter a new round of involution until the dynamic balance is formed again after the coiling.

In the stock market, it is almost difficult for new players to break through by LLM technology alone (especially this technology is very equal in a sense and the application threshold is very low).

At the same time, the stock market itself serves some market demands, and it is not certain whether these market demands will be further expanded and facilitated due to the experience improvement brought by new technologies (depending on industries or even specific applications).

Incremental market means that this market may have existed before, but the relevant technology is not up to standard, so the whole market is a blue ocean, and there are no strong old players. Everyone is equal and has their own abilities.

Please note that increment is not necessarily better than stock, stock is the vast majority of the current world, and AI’s destructive update and incremental drive to each stock market are also different.

3. Will the direction you are looking at be subverted by giants?

• First, this direction is not on the main track of the giants, which everyone knows.
• Second, to observe the future development direction of OpenAI, at least at present, small models, development frameworks, integrated workflows, etc. need to be alert to the end of OpenAI.

Finally, I share a terrible guess: what is the iterative rhythm of GPT-X?

• In stage A, I provide a 1.0 model for 2B customers or 2C users to use. What I need to collect from it is "within the capability of the current version 1.0", what fine-tuning you have done, and what Prompt you have made to make LLM achieve the business effect you want.
• In stage B, the collected Prompt or fine-tuning data are manually corrected and marked to form SFT supervised data set, and the RLHF mode is taken again to obtain the 2.0 model.
• In the C stage, the 2.0 model is opened, and a bunch of old extended applications are turned over-a scene that used to need additional optimization, and now the general LLM capability can support it. Then, based on version 2.0, collect again "within the capability of version 2.0". What fine-tuning and Prompt have you made to make LLM achieve the business effect you want?

….. the above process will be infinite loop.

This guess can be combined with reviewing my previous chapter on "essential learning", which is consistent with the concept of OpenAI. From beginning to end, what they have to do is not to exercise LLM’s understanding of surface knowledge (such as who Trump is), but to exercise LLM’s thinking framework. The Prompt instruction condenses the expression and requirements of human beings for tasks, which is the most valuable data at this stage.

While we are still lamenting that the corpus data (such as paper and articles) in the Chinese world are not as good as those in the English world, the high-quality data in OpenAI’s eyes may have changed from factual data to instruction data.

4. Is his technology pre-established? Is there enough room for his business potential?

I have nothing to say about this part, just look at your technical understanding and business judgment … this is not something that can be explained clearly in a short article.

No.1 emotional direction

Emotional direction is the only pure incremental market I see at present. In the past, the development of this direction was very weak due to the limitation of technology. After the appearance of LLM, his technical premise has made this market possible.

But there are three problems in the emotional direction:

• First, the issue of retention. Almost all this type of applications will find that there are very few long-term users, and short-term exciting attempts account for the majority. This problem can only be solved by core story, functional design and gameplay design.
• Second, the issue of trust. In the near future, the concept of human beings has not changed, and it is full of malice for the first contact with AI. In the case of malicious pre-positioning, users will be particularly picky. This problem is not easy to solve either, so we can only wait for the ideological trend change brought by new technologies.
• Third, the issue of time and energy. Betting on feelings is a seemingly energy-consuming thing that does not require physical strength. The more time users spend on such products, the more tired they will feel, and the centrifugal force on the products will be greater. A good solution is to construct flow, but it is very difficult. On the other hand, it is difficult for users to have enough reasons to provide enough time on this APP.

No.2 new paradigm

New technological development will always bring new paradigms, such as the impact of table tools on traditional tables in the PC era (not only tables, but also query and processing). Notion goes further, trying to promote All-in-one, forming the unification of Word, Excel and other formats, so that creators can concentrate on expressing ideas, while Notion is responsible for the diversified interpretation of output.

So Notion, or now Notion AI, is the final form? Or is it the final form to realize the mutual conversion and convenient operation of various files as quickly as Office Copilot?

Will there be a new file format ".ai", which can be freely extended (expanded) in real time during the presentation as long as you write your outline argument, and change various presentation methods (from guide map to PPT, and locally become an interactive table)?

I don’t know, this fantasy is meaningless, and many subtle innovations need to be stacked to become the standard paradigm of the new era.

In fact, in the early days of the emergence of new technologies, human imagination is always bound in the old thinking frame without knowing it. For example, in the book Power and Prediction, when electricity appears, it should be used to replace the steam engine in the factory.

Is it okay to just replace it? Steam is connected to various machines by pipes, while electricity only needs one wire. Steam must always be turned on, but electricity can be turned on and off at once. Steam power, for example, is seriously attenuated, so it needs to be in the middle of the factory, but electricity is not used. All these essential differences eventually gave birth to profound changes in technology, tools and management of industrial production.

Therefore, I don’t believe that the current creation that is simply superimposed on the old model is the final paradigm, not to mention that the life paradigm is still in its infancy because of the more entertaining mobile phones, VR and speakers.

In such a period, whoever polishes a new file format and a new paradigm (creation/work/life) first may get the best opportunity. -but I feel that the giants will never let go of this scene.

Opportunities in the wave of No.3 AI

Aiization is a wave, so the process of helping others keep up with the wave will create opportunities. This other person can be divided into 2C and 2B.

But regardless of 2C2B, we can roughly divide them into three categories:

1. Earn money with poor information

• 2C: Teach painting, registration, writing and distribution, and earn 30,000 yuan in 10 days and 5,000 yuan on the date of batch numbering.
• 2B: $20 a month to help you fire the data analyst, and $5,000 to quickly access CHatGPT into the live room/applet/WeChat official account.

2. Earn money for tool +AI price difference

• 2c: ChatPDF, ChatPaper, or any other AI application with work or entertainment value.
• 2b: SaaS services overlay AI. Some people think that LLM will destroy most SaaS, but my opinion is just the opposite. LLM can improve the capacity limit of SaaS and reduce its adaptation cost, thus promoting the prosperity of SaaS.

3. Earn money for self-training model

• 2C: Stand-alone LLM, deteriorated but usable.
• 2B: Privatized deployment, or MaaS, but cheaper than giant LLM.

No.4 opportunities in labor migration

After the agricultural revolution, the unit agricultural productivity overflowed, causing farmers to flow to industry. In the later period of the industrial revolution, the surplus labor force flowed to the tertiary industry. So now, because of the labor force that AI overflows (and is of better quality), where will they flow?

Is it attached to the peripheral services of the new AI, or is it flowing to the content industry (is our content supplied to the limit? ), or, as some friends say, return to the primary and secondary industries?

This kind of labor migration is bound to be accompanied by corresponding opportunities. I can’t see where the opportunity is. But a good way is to observe the United States. Their labor market is more acute and their capitalists are more ruthless. The whole migration direction may be shown in the United States first.

No.5 changes in humanistic thoughts

Changes in productivity will also bring changes in humanistic thoughts. For example, the industrial revolution erased the physical gap between men and women, and made women economically independent, thus promoting personality independence. Another example is the fragmentation of the mobile era, which makes short, flat and fast nipple music content gradually replace long and deep content.

So what will LLM technology bring? One guess is the "trust" mentioned above. Humans may gradually trust AI in the future and no longer have the malice when they first use it. The other extreme is the vigilant resistance to the "AI crisis". For example, the joint letter initiated by Musk today actually borrowed such anxiety.

But is there any other far-reaching influence? For example, after AI content is improved, it will further promote the two-level differentiation of creators: 99.9% good authors and 0.1% super good authors? For example, after the rapid outbreak of AIGC, the trust in machine recommendation turned to the trust of real KOL (human flesh information filter)?

However, the impact of changes in humanistic thoughts is usually concentrated in the content industry, or in the field of creators. What I can think of is to quickly open an anti-AI number and set up people from today.

No.6 can you be more specific

You may be a little disappointed to see this. What you said seems to be very broad. Do you have any more concrete dry goods?

First of all, if you don’t think and judge yourself in any direction (and combine your own past experience), I advise you not to go to the end. Any behavior that only digests superficial knowledge without establishing your own framework is like a goose without a trace, just like collecting = reading.

Secondly, if you really want to … look at my analysis library link, which has 69 directions (at the beginning of this big chapter), but the frequency of updating this library after me will be lower and lower, because its value to me is getting lower and lower. I have passed the stage of seeing all the green hills.

We should judge the changes brought about by this technological wave and decide what preparations we should make based on the changes.

1. The leap of productivity brings about the improvement of production efficiency, the extinction of repetitive work and a broader production scope.
2. The cognitive disorder brought about by the leap of productivity will break the concept establishment and be abandoned after the cognitive consensus.
3. The pains caused by the mismatch between productivity and production relations include labor market, humanistic trend of thought and economic changes.

1. embrace the first year of UGA

Here, let me create a word: UGA, User Generated application, which is different from UGC.

Nowadays, more and more trends show that the radiation scope of LLM is not limited to the field of content creation, but also includes the field of application creation. The ease of use of OpenAI interface, the release of Github Copilot and Microsoft Power platform all prove this.

The following are some necessary labor in the process of building an APP:

• Prototype drawing/design draft/poster: AI painting tool done
• Back-end/algorithm/front-end: open source framework/github CPI lot/Microsoft Power Platform.
• Data: LLM generation is done
• Operation: Well, it seems that I have to do it myself for the time being.

So the first thing you need to do is to start your creativity and try to make it with all kinds of tools, no matter how ugly or boring it is, the beginning is the most important thing.

2. Finding the essence, a priori is better than a posteriori.

In the future when LLM is prevalent, the value of surface knowledge will be lower and lower, which can be proved by history:

When there is no search engine, we will record all the knowledge, and with the search engine, the knowledge can be taken at will.

In the LLM era, it goes further than search engines and can help us find the knowledge we need more efficiently and more matching.

Then when LLM comes to the future of mobile phone or even VR, you will not only know everything in front of the computer, but also know everything anytime and anywhere.

In this case, your most scarce ability is a more essential and transcendental underlying thinking framework, just like OpenAI’s goal-always find a more elegant way to understand the world.

3. Be curious, but manage information well.

In the rapidly changing world, there will be a lot of information pouring in. In this regard, I give some suggestions based on my personal experience:

• First, choose your source. Note here that your source changes with your growth. Some authors will find it very helpful in your early days, but with your self-iteration, they should be removed from the source-that is, you have looked down at him. Never think, "What if he sends something useful?" Attention is very precious, so do it decisively and bravely! Move out of the attention, don’t look at the circle of friends, cancel the subscription!
• Second, do efficient and fast reading. My reading habit is to browse quickly from top to tail, judge the quality of content according to the title or keyword, and then judge whether it is worth reading deeply. So the English world is actually very unfriendly to me. It’s not that I can’t read English, but my language level is not as good as a quick read … Let’s use some language translation tools at this time. From this point of view-text is actually a visual mode.
• Third, do reading with input. I basically don’t read on the mobile terminal now. The mobile terminal is used for filtering. I will judge the information quality through the method in the second point and then forward it to read later. Sweep the goods on the PC side that day, then translate the abstract and record it in flomo. If you read it without extracting the essence, there is no difference between essence and collection.

4. Embrace the uncontrollable

Many people ask me what is the essential difference between AI product managers and products from other industries.

My opinion was published in AIGC, I see Vol.12, and it has not changed so far: "Technical understanding, business judgment and product design are the basic skills of the product, and there will be no essential difference just because it is an AI product. The biggest essential difference of AI product manager lies in the control of uncontrollable. The tools in his hand are extremely uncontrollable in technology, market and effect, and the core ability of product manager is to control it and look for One piece in the ups and downs of the waves. "

Now send this sentence to everyone who has read here. Now this is not only the core competence of AI product managers, but also the competence that everyone should share under this storm of the times.

Reporter Yang Zhonghou reported that from July 16 to 18, Zhang Guoqing, secretary of the provincial party committee and director of the Standing Committee of the Provincial People’s Congress, came to Dalian to conduct research on thoroughly implementing the spirit of the important speech and instructions of the Supreme Leader General Secretary, persisting in innovation-driven development, and making efforts to do a good job in structural adjustment, and comprehensively shaping new advantages in revitalization and development.

The construction of Dalian Yinggeshi Science City is positioned as an innovative source center with international influence. College of Energy, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, is the first key project in Yingkeshi Science City, which is of great significance for building a national clean energy science and technology innovation source.

Zhang Guoqing came to the Research Department of Energy Materials, School of Energy, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, to watch the scientific and technological innovation achievements and sample display, gain an in-depth understanding of the high-end talent introduction and industrialization target planning of scientific and technological innovation achievements in the School of Energy, sit around and communicate with faculty and student representatives, encourage scientific researchers to adhere to market demand, draw technological innovation with market demand, further create market demand with innovative technologies, and strive to transform scientific and technological innovation achievements into real productivity as soon as possible. Zhang Guoqing urged Dalian and relevant departments to pay more attention to the pilot project, support the construction of the pilot project base and promote the local industrialization of scientific and technological innovations.

CRRC Dalian Locomotive & Rolling Stock Co., Ltd. is known as the "cradle of locomotives". In the new factory area of Dalian Locomotive Lushunkou, Zhang Guoqing walked into the production workshop of the city railway, watched the prototype of the city railway, learned about green manufacturing and market development, and watched the automatic welding production line on the spot, praising the good performance achieved by the enterprise in production and operation. Zhang Guoqing said that the digital manufacturing of Dalian locomotives is a beautiful "business card" for the construction of a digital Liaoning and a strong intellectual province, which shows us the vitality of the "old brand" through digital transformation. It is hoped that Dalian Locomotive will further strengthen digital empowerment, promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry to the direction of intelligence, green, high-end and service, and further enhance its core competitiveness.

Zhang Guoqing also investigated the construction and development of Dalian Medical University, telling the responsible comrades of the school to pay more attention to the development of public health education and provide talent guarantee and intellectual support for the further prevention and control of normalized epidemic situation in our province.

Zhang Guoqing emphasized that Liaoning has a solid industrial base, rich innovation resources and various talents, and has obvious advantages in promoting high-quality development. We should thoroughly implement the spirit of the important speech and instructions of the Supreme Leader General Secretary, persist in innovation-driven development, make overall plans for the "trinity" promotion of innovation ecology, innovation platform and innovative talents, introduce projects, teams and technologies by "transplanting with soil", speed up the gathering of a number of high-level scientific and technological talents and innovative teams, make efforts to solve a number of "stuck-neck" problems, and contribute to the realization of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance. We should make full use of our province’s innovative resources and industrial base, speed up the improvement of the local matching rate of head enterprises, the local industrialization rate of scientific and technological innovation achievements, and the growth rate of scientific and technological enterprises, speed up industrial digitalization and digital industrialization, and strive to make the development advantages more prominent.

Hu Yuting, Deputy Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee and Secretary of the Dalian Municipal Party Committee, and Zhang Chengzhong, Standing Committee Member and Secretary General of the Provincial Party Committee, participated in the survey.

　　Not all women do skin care. In fact, men should also do skin care well. Male friends also have some skin problems, such as acne, blackheads, large pores and so on. So what are the skills of skin care for male friends?

　　High freshness is the key.

　　The most important thing for men’s skin is to keep it high and fresh. Men’s sebaceous glands and sweat glands are exuberant, and the PH value of men’s skin is acidic, so the skin is easy to produce oil and sweat more. The first thing men should know in common sense of skin care is to keep their skin clean. But this cleaning doesn’t mean washing your face more. Too many times of washing your face will make water and oil unbalanced. In skin care products, you can choose some products that can effectively clean and repair the skin.

　　Exfoliate old waste cutin

　　If the cuticle of the skin accumulates too much, it will not be metabolized in time, and the skin will become more and more dull. Therefore, the key to improving dull complexion is to remove the old waste cutin. It is suggested that men and friends use a scrub with abrasive particles twice a week to clean their faces. After each face wash, wipe the skin with a cotton pad filled with make-up water, and clean the skin for the second time, so as to take away the residual dirt and grease.

　　Hydrating and moisturizing

　　Some men’s skin is prone to dryness, so hydrating and moisturizing are essential. You can choose some men’s rejuvenating cream or essence cream during the day, and make some deep moisturizing masks at night. Too dry skin can try to make a mask all night, that is, after removing the mask, do not wash it with water, just wipe off some mask components that overflow the face.

　　There are requirements for shaving

　　Shaving is also included in skin care. This is because shaving is close to the skin, and it will hurt the skin if you are not careful. And whether you use a razor or something else, it will cause some small wounds to your skin. Therefore, care should be taken before and after shaving. Before shaving, foam thoroughly, and after shaving, treat with aftershave water to relieve skin, astringe pores, sterilize and diminish inflammation, and prevent infection.

　　Men also need to moisturize and resist aging.

　　Anti-aging, regardless of gender. But men should never use women’s anti-aging products, which is the most basic common sense of male skin care. Men’s anti-aging can start with moisturizing. With the increase of age, men’s metabolism slows down, thus leaving their skin in a state of water shortage. Therefore, moisturizing products can moisturize the skin in time and resist the traces of time.

　　Healthy living and eating habits

　　The daily diet should take health as the principle, and take more vitamins, protein, minerals and other nutrients to supplement the nutrients needed by the skin. Drinking more green tea can effectively promote metabolism and resist oxidation. Avoid drinking too much to cause acne, drink less carbonated drinks, and prevent skin from being saccharified and yellow. In addition, get into the habit of going to bed early. 10: 00 p.m. to 2: 00 a.m. is the period of skin repair and adjustment. Only by staying asleep can you ensure skin health.

　　What is a tropical cyclone?

　　Tropical Cyclone is a low-pressure vortex that occurs on the tropical or subtropical ocean surface, and it is a powerful and profound tropical weather system. Like a vortex moving forward in a flowing river, it spins rapidly around its center and moves forward with the surrounding atmosphere. In the tropical cyclone in the northern hemisphere, the airflow rotates counterclockwise around the center, but in the southern hemisphere, it is the opposite.

　　The life history of tropical cyclones can be divided into three stages: generation, maturity and extinction. Its average life span is about a week, the shortest is only 2-3 days, and the longest is about a month.

　　The generation and development of tropical cyclones need huge energy, so they are formed on the tropical ocean surface with high temperature, high humidity and other suitable meteorological conditions. According to statistics, tropical cyclones are generated in tropical oceans all over the world except the South Atlantic.

　　It is usually formed on the sea surface 3-5 latitudes away from the equator in tropical areas (such as the North and South Pacific, the North Atlantic and the Indian Ocean), and its movement is mainly affected by large-scale weather systems, and eventually dissipates at sea, or degenerates into an extratropical cyclone, or dissipates after landing. Landing tropical cyclone will bring serious property losses and casualties, which is a kind of natural disaster. However, tropical cyclones are also one of the components of atmospheric circulation, which can bring thermal energy and angular momentum of the earth’s rotation from the equatorial region to higher latitudes.

　　When tropical cyclones land or move northward to higher latitudes, they will soon die out because they lose the high temperature and high humidity conditions on which they depend. A large number of tropical cyclones are generated in the equatorial convergence zone, and there is a strong subtropical high on the north side of the equatorial convergence zone. The movement of tropical cyclones is mainly guided by the easterly airflow on the south side of subtropical high and moves westward. Such tropical cyclones often land from the southeast coast of China to the coast of Vietnam. Sometimes the subtropical high is located to the east. When the tropical cyclone moves to the western edge of the subtropical high, it will turn to the north or northeast direction and land in the coastal areas of Shandong, Liaoning, Korea and Japan, or even go north on the east side of Japan.

　　

　　Benefits of typhoons:

　　In China’s coastal areas, typhoons hit us more or less in summer and autumn almost every year, and the loss of life and property is not small. As a kind of disastrous weather, it can be said that when it comes to typhoon, no one will show a good impression on it. However, everything has duality. Typhoon has brought disasters to human beings, but if there is no typhoon, human beings will suffer even more. Scientific research has found that typhoons have at least the following benefits for human beings:

　　First, with the rapid growth of global population and the development of industry and agriculture, the demand for fresh water is expanding day by day, and the limited fresh water resources on land are unevenly distributed, so the world water shortage has become increasingly serious. However, typhoon, a tropical storm, has brought abundant fresh water to people. Typhoon brings a lot of rain to the coast of China, the coast of the Sea of Japan, India, Southeast Asia and the southeastern United States, accounting for more than a quarter of the total precipitation in these areas, which is of great significance to improving the fresh water supply and ecological environment in these areas.

　　Secondly, the tropical and subtropical areas near the equator have the longest sunshine time, and the dry heat is unbearable. If there is no typhoon to disperse the heat in these areas, it will be hotter there and the surface sand shortage will be more serious. At the same time, the cold zone will be colder and the temperate zone will disappear. There will be no spring city like Kunming in China, nor Guangzhou with evergreen seasons, and the "Beidacang" and Inner Mongolia grassland will also cease to exist.

　　Third, the maximum speed of a typhoon can reach more than 200 kilometers per hour, and its energy is equivalent to the energy released by 400 2,000-ton hydrogen bombs when they explode. Wherever they go, they destroy everything. This huge energy can directly cause disasters to human beings, but it also keeps the earth in thermal balance and makes human beings live and work in peace and contentment.

　　Fourthly, during the formation and operation of typhoon with huge energy, with the help of lightning, long chains of water molecules can be broken and short-chain water molecules with activity can be formed. After inhaling these short-chain water molecules, the creatures on the earth can increase the vitality of life, thus making the earth’s ecology continue to develop.
Fifth, typhoons can also increase fishing output. Every time a typhoon blows, it turns over the river, and the nutrients at the bottom of the river and the sea are rolled up, and the bait increases, attracting fish to gather near the water surface, and the catch naturally increases.

　　

　　The harm of typhoon to human beings;

　　Typhoon has brought plenty of rain to vast areas, and it has become a rainfall system closely related to human life and production. However, typhoon always brings all kinds of damage. It is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world because of its sudden and destructive power.

　　The destructive power of typhoon is mainly caused by strong wind, heavy rain and storm surge.

　　1. Strong wind

　　Typhoon is a huge energy pool, and its wind speed is above 17 m/s, even above 60 m/s. According to the measurement, when the wind reaches 12, the wind pressure per square meter on the plane perpendicular to the wind direction can reach 230 kilograms.

　　2. Heavy rain

　　Typhoon is a very strong rainfall system. When a typhoon lands, the rainstorm center can drop 100-300mm in a day, even reaching 500-800mm. The flood disaster caused by typhoon and rainstorm is the most dangerous disaster. The intensity of typhoon rainstorm is high, the frequency of flood is high, the spread range is wide, and it is fierce and destructive.

　　3. Storm surge

　　The so-called storm surge means that when the typhoon moves to land, due to the strong wind and low pressure of the typhoon, the sea water accumulates strongly in the direction of the coast, the tide level rises sharply, and the water waves are overwhelming to the coast. The storm surge of a strong typhoon can raise the coastal water level by 5-6 meters. Storm surge meets astronomical high tide level, resulting in high-frequency tide level, resulting in tidal overflow, seawall burst, washed away houses and various building facilities, flooded towns and farmland, and caused a large number of casualties and property losses. Storm surge will also cause coastal erosion and land salinization caused by seawater intrusion.

　　

　　How to avoid danger when the typhoon comes?

　　Try not to go out.

　　2. If you are outside, don’t take shelter from the wind and rain near temporary buildings, billboards, iron towers and trees.

　　If you are driving, you should immediately drive to the underground parking lot or shelter.

　　If you live in a tent, you should immediately put away your tent and take shelter from the wind in a solid house.

　　If you are on the water (such as swimming), you should go ashore to take shelter from the wind and rain immediately.

　　6. If you are already in a solid house, you should carefully close the window and stick a "meter" pattern on the window glass with adhesive tape to prevent the window glass from breaking.

　　7. If there is a typhoon and thunder, lightning protection measures should be taken.

　　8. After the typhoon, it is necessary to pay attention to environmental sanitation and the safety of food and water.

　　

　　Typhoon prevention at sea: how to avoid navigation in case of typhoon?

　　1. What about the ships at sea before the typhoon comes?

　　(1) Before the typhoon comes, the ship should obey the command and go to the shelter immediately.
(2) In case you can’t escape or encounter a typhoon, you should contact the relevant departments on the shore in time for rescue.

　　(3) When waiting for rescue, you should take the initiative to take emergency measures and take measures to leave the typhoon quickly and decisively, such as stopping (delaying navigation), bypassing (bypassing navigation) and crossing (passing quickly).

　　(4) The calm wind and waves shortly after the strong typhoon may be the calm when the typhoon eye passes. At this time, the owner of the berthing port must not go back to reinforce the ship in order to protect his property.

　　(5) When conditions permit, the ship shall be equipped with modern equipment such as beacon, radio communication machine and satellite phone.

　　(6) When there is no radio communication equipment, when a passing ship or plane is found, or when it is close to the land, you can use objects to send out easily-detected distress signals in time, such as piling up the words "SOS", setting off fireworks, sending out light and sound signals, shaking brightly-colored objects, etc.

　　2. How to avoid navigation when encountering a typhoon?

　　When a ship sailing at sea encounters a typhoon, in order to avoid being involved in the typhoon center or the storm area around the center, the method of avoiding navigation is generally adopted. The ship can lose no time to change its course and speed according to the dynamics and intensity of the typhoon, so as to keep a certain distance from the center of the typhoon, which is beyond the gale range of the wind level that the ship can resist.

　　The wind direction of the right semicircle of the typhoon is close to the moving route of the typhoon, and the wind speed of the right semicircle is greater than that of the left semicircle. Moreover, most typhoons turn to the right, which makes it easy to drag ships in the right semicircle into the center of the typhoon. Therefore, the right semicircle of typhoon is called "dangerous semicircle" and the left semicircle is called "navigable semicircle" in navigation.

　　When a ship encounters a typhoon at sea, it should judge its position according to the situation and dynamic forecast of the typhoon and the changes of wind force, wind direction and air pressure observed on the spot, so as to take appropriate navigation methods and stay away from the typhoon center as soon as possible.

　　The method of judging the position of the ship and the navigation measures to be taken are as follows:

　　(1) the wind direction changes clockwise, the air pressure is decreasing, and the wind is gradually increasing. At this time, the ship position is in the first half of the typhoon’s dangerous semicircle, that is, the dangerous quadrant, and it should sail at full speed against the wind on the starboard side of the bow.

　　(2) The wind direction changes counterclockwise, the air pressure keeps decreasing, and the wind force gradually increases. At this time, the ship is in the first half of the navigable semicircle of the typhoon, and should sail at full speed with the starboard stern exposed to the wind.

　　(3) the wind direction is constant, the air pressure is decreasing, and the wind is gradually increasing. At this time, the ship is on the way of typhoon, so it should sail at full speed with the starboard stern under the wind.

　

　　Residents’ typhoon prevention: what should I do when the typhoon comes?

　　Main points of preparation before typhoon comes.

　　1. Listen, watch or check the typhoon warning information online in time to understand the government’s countermeasures against Taiwan.

　　2. Close the doors and windows and fasten the structures that are easily blown by the wind.

　　3. Move from the dilapidated house to a safe place.

　　4. People in low-lying areas that may be flooded should be moved in time.

　　5. Check whether the facilities such as circuit, fire and gas are safe.

　　6. Kindergartens and schools should take temporary avoidance measures and suspend classes when necessary.

　　7. Open-air collective activities or indoor large-scale gatherings should be cancelled in time, and evacuation should be done.

　　8. Don’t travel to the area where the typhoon passes or swim on the beach, let alone go out to sea by boat.

　　

　　How to prevent Taiwan in fishery before and after typhoon?

　　1. Before the typhoon comes

　　(1) Do a good job in the evacuation of personnel in high-risk places such as beaches, ships, downstream of reservoirs and waterlogged places.

　　(2) Strengthen the safety inspection of power facilities and equipment to ensure the safety of electricity use.

　　(3) Make preparations for fishery facilities and equipment to ensure the normal operation of machinery and equipment.

　　(4) Do a good job in the escape prevention of cultured products. Strengthen the inspection and consolidation of anti-escape facilities such as river crabs and soft-shelled turtles. At the same time, do a good job in emergency preparations for the collapse of dams and ponds caused by heavy rains.

　　(5) Do a good job in emergency preparations for floating heads of aquaculture varieties and disease outbreaks after typhoons.

　　2. After encountering a typhoon

　　(1) When a fishing boat at sea is in distress, it shall immediately send out a distress signal, and report the time, place, sea conditions, damage, rescue requirements, contact information and the cause of the accident to the fishery administrative department and the maritime agency, and take all effective measures to organize self-help.

　　(2) Fishing boats (including small fishing boats) going out to sea should return to Hong Kong as soon as possible or take shelter from the wind to the nearest port, and take measures to prevent fishing boats from colliding.

　　

　　Agricultural prevention and remedy before and after typhoon crossing the border?

　　1. Precautionary measures for crops such as rice, vegetables and dry grain before disaster.

　　After the news of typhoon is released, make early preparations for places that may be hit by typhoon and flood disasters, and take timely measures to prevent and avoid disasters. Take the following measures for field crops:

　　Dredge ditches and open field drains to ensure smooth drainage and irrigation; Sufficient agricultural materials for disaster relief; Organize timely harvesting of mature field crops such as rice, corn, soybeans, melons and vegetables; Repair and strengthen production facilities such as greenhouses. Organize the field workers to evacuate in time.

　　2. Disposal measures after typhoon disaster

　　(1) Rice

　　Dredge ditches and open field drains to ensure smooth drainage and irrigation; Rinse the leaf mud and apply fertilizer in time; Spraying drugs in time to control pests and diseases. After the typhoon, a large number of leaves were injured, and the source of flooded rice fields increased, which was very prone to rice diseases, and rice planthoppers and leaf rollers also often occurred. According to the actual occurrence of pests and diseases, the corresponding pesticides should be selected in time.

　　(2) Vegetables

　　Ditching and drainage; If the vegetable field is flooded and the vegetables are damaged, the affected vegetables with market value should be actively harvested and listed to reduce losses; Strengthen the prevention and control of vegetable diseases.

　　(3) Dry grain crops

　　Timely drainage and intertillage, increase fertilizer, especially available nitrogen fertilizer, improve soil nutrient status and make plants grow rapidly; For lodging dry grain crops, the plants should be raised before new roots are formed, and the soil should be cultivated and fertilized at the same time, so that the new roots can be quickly planted.

　　(4) production of mulberry tea fruit

　　First, ditch drainage and clean up sludge and sundries. For the flooded garden, ditch and drain the canal, quickly eliminate the accumulated water in the garden, reduce the groundwater level and accelerate the drying of the topsoil. Seawater is poured into the orchard, and after the seawater is drained, it is washed with fresh water. Wash the mud on the branches and leaves of plants with water in time, remove the sundries hanging on the plants in time, and cut off some branches and leaves for plants that have been flooded for a long time.

　　Second, the trees that have been washed down by the flood should be righted as soon as possible, supported and fixed by brackets, and the exposed roots should be covered with soil. For trees with serious root damage, thin branches and cut leaves to reduce leaf evaporation. If the branches have been broken, cut them off in time.

　　The third is to loosen the soil at the right time. After flooding, the soil in the garden is hardened, which is easy to cause root hypoxia. When the topsoil in the garden is basically dry, loosen the soil in time.

　　The fourth is topdressing outside the roots. After waterlogging, the root system of the tree is damaged, and its ability to absorb fertilizer and water is weak, so it is not suitable to apply fertilizer to the root immediately. 0.1-0.2% potassium dihydrogen phosphate, 0.3% urea and foliar fertilizer can be used for topdressing outside the root. Once every five days or so, spray for 2-3 times. After the tree is restored, apply decomposed human and animal manure, cake fertilizer or urea to the soil to promote new roots.

　　The fifth is moderate pruning. The pruning amount is determined according to the degree of damage. In addition to re-pruning, some or all fruits should be picked from the damaged heavy trees to reduce the water evaporation of the waterlogged branches and leaves and the nutrient consumption of the trees.

　　Sixth, do a good job in pest control. After the typhoon, it is easy to induce various pests and diseases, and citrus is prone to acute anthracnose, canker, black spot disease, rust tick and red spider. Pear is prone to scab, pear rust and ring rot; Peach is prone to brown rot and anthracnose; Myrica rubra is prone to brown spot disease and red coat disease; Loquat is prone to spot disease, gray spot disease, angular spot disease, leaf blight and yellow caterpillar; Grapes are prone to black pox. Attention should be paid to the monitoring of the above pests and diseases, and once they occur, corresponding pesticides should be selected for timely prevention and control.

　　

　　

　　(Editor: Xu Lina)

　　Skydiving at a height of 4,000m, ocean diving, lying in the crater for one night …

　　The young man traveled to 40 countries and had fun traveling with him.

Charming Lake Bandamir

Examination of diving certificate

Xiye climbed the volcano.

parachute

Travel with several big bags of luggage.

　　Recently, in Chongqing local forum, a post entitled "There was a dream at that time, about traveling across the world" became popular. The poster is a post-90 s boy, who has illustrated his travels in more than 40 countries around the world in the past few years.

　　Over the past month or so, more than 70,000 netizens have followed this post. Netizens said that it is not possible to travel abroad for the time being because of the epidemic, and the "cloud tour" is also very enjoyable.

　　Tales of talent

　　-the meaning of travel

　　"For an adventurous person like me, it is the meaning of travel to get out of the cramped space of daily life, let my heart fly, broaden my horizons and experience different wonderful things every day."

　　cause

　　Riding Xizang ignites the dream of travel.

　　Last weekend, the reporter met the poster Mr. Lei, 28 years old, in Jie Fangbei, Yuzhong District. He is tall and handsome. He is a native of Chongqing and works in hair design. Mr. Lei said that relatives and friends around him like to call him Xiya, and he also hopes to share stories with readers under this name.

　　In 2013, 20-year-old Lucy also fell in love with travel. At that time, he was engaged in hair design in Shanghai, and the pressure of life and work made him breathless. I accidentally read a report about "a man riding a bike to travel to Xizang". At that moment, Lucy also felt as if she was ignited by something and was eager to try it. Soon he quit his job and spent 24 days riding 2,100 kilometers to Xizang. "This is my first trip, and my world outlook has opened up. Since then, it has become out of control, which has become my hobby."

　　Later, after spending more than two years traveling around the country, Lucy began to travel around the world.

　　footmark

　　Travel to more than 40 countries around the world

　　From 2016 to 2019, West Asia spent nearly half of its time abroad. He has visited more than 40 countries in Asia, Africa, Oceania, North America and South America. Therefore, the journey of these years has left me the most wonderful time.

　　Haikao diving card

　　In September, 2017, Xi Ye arrived in Daharb, a small town on the Egyptian Red Sea, and decided to learn a new skill here-taking the diving certificate, which is almost the cheapest place in the world to take the diving certificate.

　　Lucy also said that diving is only interesting and beautiful on TV, but it is not easy to find it when you practice. Need to overcome the fear of the sea, external weather factors, ear pressure and air pressure. After five days’ practice, Xixi also ushered in the graduation exam in Hadabu Ocean Blue Cave, the third deepest ocean blue cave in the world. It looks clear and calm, and it is very easy to enter, but it is known as "the deadliest diving spot on earth", and even the tombstones erected by people to commemorate the dead divers stand on the coast.

　　During the exam, perhaps because the pressure in the sea here is too high, Xiye’s ear pressure can’t be balanced all the time, which leads to severe ear pain and has been unable to dive. In the end, Lucy forced herself to calm down, repeated the ascent and dived again and again, and finally found the balance of ear pressure, completed the diving test at a depth of 30 meters and got the diving certificate.

　　Land on the volcano

　　Lucy also said that in the northeast of Ethiopia, Africa, Erta Ale volcano is one of the few remaining lava lakes in the world.

　　In October 2017, Xi also accompanied several foreign companions with the same adventurous spirit and invited a local guide to start a trip to the volcano in the evening. It took more than four hours to climb the mountain, stepping on the black road formed by magma condensation along the way, and looking up at the crater with red light, it felt very magical.

　　When they really arrived at the crater, they were covered with smoke everywhere. When the wind dispersed the smoke, everyone finally got a glimpse of the whole volcano-the fiery magma was surging, and the sound of "rumbling" when the magma generate was heard, but the whole fire was bottomless and went straight to the center of the earth. "At that moment, I felt that nature was too magical, I was too small, and I was full of awe."

　　That night, Xiye and his companions lay 100 meters away from the crater for one night, just to see the lava lake during the day. "I remember that the starry sky was beautiful that night, but the volcano after dawn was not as shocking as it looked at night."

　　Skydiving at high altitude

　　"Skydiving from an altitude of more than 4,000 meters is really a wonderful experience." In March 2017, Lucy also came to Australia and tried her first skydiving on a farm. He had never even tried bungee jumping before.

　　Lucy also said that after climbing to an altitude of more than 4000 meters in a small helicopter, he parachuted under the guidance of his coach. When I opened the cabin door, I looked at the white clouds floating at my feet, and Lucy, who has always been keen on adventure, became a little nervous.

　　At the moment when I closed my eyes and jumped off, Lucy was very dizzy. After about 10 seconds, I gradually found a balance. "When I rushed to the earth in a hug posture and rushed to the beautiful scenery such as lakes, oceans and mountains that are getting closer and closer, it felt really wonderful."

　　cost

　　Save money for fancy travel

　　Lucy also said that all the expenses of her trip were saved during her work, and the funds were relatively limited, so she has always been a poor traveler.

　　Eat: bring a pot and noodles and try to cook it yourself.

　　Every time she goes abroad, Lucy will carry three bags, one on her back, one on her back and one hanging on her chest. In addition to computers, cameras, mobile phones and daily necessities, the bag also contains hot pot bottom materials, bagged Chongqing noodles, side dishes for meals, electric cookers, etc., to ensure that you can cook as much as possible outside and save food expenses. "I once shared our Chongqing hot pot with many foreign netizens, and they all praised it while shouting spicy."

　　Accommodation: Youth hostel or cheap homestay.

　　When staying outside, Xiye will choose to live in a youth hostel or a cheap homestay. One of the most frustrating times was in Pakistan. At that time, there was no running water to take a bath, and I was as clean as myself. I could only take a bath with snow mountain water at low temperature.

　　OK: Take a bus on foot or share a car.

　　In terms of transportation, in the city, we will try our best to choose walking or taking public transportation. When you go to the suburbs, you can rent the same car as your fellow travelers. When crossing different countries, they will choose to travel by car as much as possible to save transportation expenses. "I once waited for a multinational car at the African border and learned that the car would not arrive until early the next morning. I was afraid of missing the car and had no choice but to stay in the bullpen near the station for one night."

　　News face to face

　　Pay attention to these when traveling abroad alone.

　　Q: You can’t travel abroad for the time being. What’s your plan?

　　Xiye: When the epidemic is completely over, I will continue to travel around the world, and the world still has an infinite journey waiting for me to measure and explore. Now all I can do is to work hard and save money.

　　Q: Traveling around the world alone is cool. What experience do you have to share?

　　Xiye: First of all, I need the support of my family. My parents believe that I have the ability to take care of myself independently, but they also support me to travel. Secondly, we should consider the language problem. My initial English vocabulary is very small, but the advantage is that I dare to say that when I travel abroad, I will use words plus body language and draw pictures to communicate with people. Secondly, we should be prepared to face adversity. For example, when I was playing in the desert of India, I was suddenly bitten by a camel with my team and had to go to the hospital for rabies vaccination.

　　Q: How can individuals protect themselves when traveling abroad?

　　Xiye: In foreign countries, I insist on writing a travel diary in my circle of friends every day, which not only locks up the beautiful moments, but also lets my relatives and friends know my itinerary and feel at ease. In addition, be sure to bring a small chest bag or purse with you, such as cash, passport, mobile phone and other valuables, and never leave your sight; Try not to go to remote and deserted places alone. It will be better to choose a team and invite local people to be guides.

　　Q: Can you recommend two more characteristic treasure punch points?

　　Xiye: Lake Bandamir in Bamiyan, Afghanistan. Six sapphire lakes form a group of lakes, like clear sapphires. The pyramids of Mexico, the pyramids here are different from the pyramids of Egypt in that there are steps to climb to the top and overlook the whole ancient city.

　　Chongqing Evening News-Upstream journalist Wang Wei Photo courtesy of the interviewee

▲ In an electronics company somewhere, workers work on the production line. Figure/Xinhua News Agency

据新华社报道，2月23日，中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席、中央财经委员会主任最高领袖主持召开中央财经委员会第四次会议时强调，加快产品更新换代是推动高质量发展的重要举措，要鼓励引导新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。

消费重新成为经济增长主动力

当前，宏观经济总体向好，但也面临几个方面的压力和挑战。一方面，当前的中国经济，已经进入从高速发展转向高质量发展阶段。经济与产业的转型升级一脉相承，同时居民的消费升级意愿也较强烈，对于美好生活的向往需要更有力的支撑和丰富的供给。

另一方面，全球治理处于二战后长期和平以来的变革期，既有的国际秩序、国际范式、国际机构等都受到不同程度挑战。世界各国近年来也出现了明显分化，保守主义、民粹主义推动所谓“逆全球化”，全球政经关系复杂多变，大环境处于风高浪急之中。

因此，要加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，就要进一步畅通内循环，提升内需。

从国家统计局发布数据看，2023年，中国在极其不易的状况下实现了经济的稳定复苏，消费是其中的亮点。2023年，社会消费品零售总额超过47万亿元，总量创历史新高。

Moreover, consumption has become the main driving force of economic growth again. The final consumption expenditure boosted China’s economic growth by 4.3 percentage points, up by 3.1 percentage points over the previous year, and the contribution rate to economic growth was 82.5%, up by 43.1 percentage points, and the basic role of consumption was even more significant. In order to strive for progress in stability and promote stability through progress, it is necessary to further consolidate the trend of consumption recovery.

Trade-in and industrial upgrading complement each other.

As we all know, "home appliances to the countryside" and "trade-in" were put forward after the global economic crisis brought about by the US financial crisis in 2008. At that time, the subprime mortgage crisis put the world in danger of recession, and the export demand of consumer electronic products declined rapidly. China decided to actively respond to expanding the domestic demand market, and financial subsidies for home appliances to the countryside were fully rolled out in 2009.

The Ministry of Commerce’s national household appliances trade-in data in 2010 showed that 32.224 million new household appliances were sold, achieving sales of 121.11 billion yuan and recycling of 33.446 million old household appliances.

This measure not only boosted domestic consumption, but also lowered the market demand, allowing more township residents to enjoy the consumption upgrade, and at the same time, the promotion effect on industrial transformation and upgrading was also very obvious. China’s white goods industry has been in a period of transformation and upgrading. Driven by the strong domestic demand market, some enterprises have further leapfrogged and become the global leader in household appliances.

Therefore, after the COVID-19 epidemic, it is necessary to smooth the scar effect of market and consumption. In fact, under the background of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike last year, China’s exports are also facing a certain degree of pressure. At present, the important goal is to promote market vitality and strengthen consumption power. This trade-in should also be one of the important projects.

▲ "Green+Smart" has become a new trend in home appliances. Figure/Xinhua News Agency

Of course, times have changed, and this trade-in is different from the last one in many ways. In July 2022, the Notice of the Ministry of Commerce and other 13 departments on Several Measures to Promote the Consumption of Green Smart Home Appliances set off a new wave of home appliances going to the countryside. The government work report of the two sessions in 2023 also emphasized: continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles and encourage local governments to carry out green smart home appliances to the countryside and trade in old ones.

In recent years, China’s new energy industry has developed rapidly, and it is in the forefront of the world in many technologies, products, talents, management and brands. Therefore, promoting the trade-in of the consumer market is actually complementary to the industrial transformation and upgrading. The market share of green, digital and intelligent products and equipment is increasing day by day, which has its own market rules. At this time, it is also in line with the logic of economic development to propose equipment renewal.

Private enterprises should be better involved.

At the same time, it should also be noted that the last trade-in was more government-led and financial support, and this time it was carried out in a government-led and enterprise-led way. The meeting also stressed that it is necessary to adhere to the market-oriented, government guidance, encourage the advanced, eliminate the backward, adhere to the standard guidance, and improve in an orderly manner.

The market-oriented tone of making enterprises "the leading role" can make the docking of supply and demand more efficient, but it should also be noted that the actual effect of some measures still needs to be improved after the lack of financial support in the past two years.

Enterprise-led gives some enterprises opportunities, but also brings some operational pressures, especially for a large number of private enterprises, which also bear the heavy responsibility of ensuring employment. At this time, it may be necessary to give more support to enterprises, especially private enterprises, to complete the liquidity expansion in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical hedging and help them participate better.

At the same time, it is also necessary at this time to build a good and friendly business environment, so that enterprises of all types can truly develop in a market-oriented and rule-based environment, and give more relaxed and inclusive policy conditions, rest and be cautious in punishment. Therefore, whether the future fiscal policy can further exert its strength and give more subsidies and support in promoting consumption is also the market expectation.

Of course, high-quality development also needs to pay more attention to improving quality and efficiency. The meeting pointed out that logistics is the "tendon" of the real economy, connecting production and consumption, domestic trade and foreign trade, and it is necessary to effectively reduce the logistics cost of the whole society, enhance the core competitiveness of the industry, and improve the efficiency of economic operation.

The logistics industry is connected with production at one end and consumption at the other end, which is an important link to smooth the national economic cycle. In recent years, China’s logistics system construction has made great progress, but relatively speaking, the logistics cost is still high, and there are also some problems, such as insufficient integration of logistics and industrial chain supply chain, high storage and management operation costs, inconsistent rules of logistics market, high institutional transaction costs and so on.

Institutional transaction costs bring about the problems of market disunity, unsmooth circulation and uneconomical consumption, which require the relevant departments to further implement the details of unifying the big market. It is particularly necessary to cancel and adjust some unreasonable fines, reduce pilot fees in coastal ports, and reduce cargo port fees and truck tolls in stages.

The expansion and upgrading of residents’ consumption has always been the common hope of macro-economy and micro-economy, which is not only necessary for national development, but also necessary for people’s livelihood protection. At this moment, in the face of many international uncertainties, we must do our own thing well, and safeguarding people’s livelihood and boosting domestic demand are important tasks.

In this process, in addition to further improving the institutional guarantee of smooth marketization and rule of law, reducing institutional transaction costs, improving quality and efficiency, we also need tolerance and support at the policy level. Of course, the strength of monetary and fiscal policies is also essential.

Written by/Wan Zhe (Professor of Beijing Normal University, Executive Director of China Modern Finance Society)

Editor/Ma Xiaolong

Proofreading/Wu Xingfa

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　　Beijing, Dec. 21 (Reporter Zhang Ni) As New Year’s Day approaches, domestic colleges and universities have entered the final stage one after another, and the army of students will return home soon. Affected by the epidemic, this year’s major universities implemented a "peak-shifting" holiday, and many universities even started the winter vacation mode in December.

　　What’s the difference between this winter vacation? Is the epidemic prevention and control deployed?

Data Map: On April 10th, Taiyuan Railway Station, Shanxi Province, students returning from colleges and universities received temperature tests at the exit. On the same day, the first batch of colleges and universities in Shanxi Province resumed classes in their graduation grades. China News Service reporter Wei Liang photo

　　The implementation of peak-to-peak holidays in colleges and universities has a school holiday of more than 2 months.

　　Recently, there have been newly confirmed cases in many provinces in China, and the Spring Festival on New Year’s Day is approaching. As one of the main forces of the inter-provincial floating population, the winter vacation arrangements for college students have attracted much attention.

　　In view of the problem of epidemic prevention and control in schools, the Ministry of Education recently issued the Notice on Strengthening the Prevention and Control of Epidemic in Campus this winter and next spring to the Office of the Leading Group for Epidemic Prevention and Control in COVID-19. The "Notice" requires that all local schools should plan the winter vacation and spring school opening arrangements as early as possible, and coordinate the prevention and control of normalized epidemics and teaching and scientific research work. Colleges and universities adhere to the principle of "peak-shifting", arrange students to leave school in batches and orderly, and properly arrange winter vacation life, the teachers and students who stay in school.

　　Judging from the actual situation, different from previous years, this year, the winter holidays in colleges and universities all over the country have opened a "time difference", and the length of holidays is also quite different.

　　For example, the winter vacation of Tianjin Normal University will start before New Year’s Day. According to the arrangement of the school, students will have a winter vacation from December 21, 2020 to February 27, 2021, and the holiday will last for more than two months.

　　According to the school calendar published by China University of Political Science and Law, the students of this school have a winter vacation from January 9, 2021, return to school on February 28, and formally attend classes on March 1, with a total holiday of 50 days.

　　The winter vacation of China Renmin University lasts from January 18th to February 21st, 2021. The winter vacation of the University of International Business and Economics started later, starting from January 25, 2021 and ending on February 26, with February 28 as the student registration day.

　　According to the announcement issued by Wuhan University, the school’s holiday time is from January 17th to February 23rd, 2021. Fudan University’s winter vacation starts on January 17th, 2021, and the undergraduate students register on February 28th, and the graduate students register on February 26th.

Data Map: Students study in the study room of the library. Photo by Liu Yuhua

　　People with the same defense, closed management … … Epidemic prevention measures "No holiday"

　　The winter vacation is just around the corner, and education departments and universities all over the country have begun to actively deploy the epidemic prevention and control work during the holiday.

　　This month, the Education Department of Zhejiang Province held a conference on epidemic prevention and control in winter and winter vacation in the province’s education system to deploy epidemic prevention and control in winter and spring on campus.

　　In terms of prevention and control of epidemic situation on campus, Zhejiang requires sticking to people’s common defense, fully guarding the campus gate, continuing to strictly implement the intelligent control measures of epidemic situation on campus, adjusting the control measures on campus in light of the actual situation, strengthening the management of campus gathering activities, paying close attention to the inspection and disinfection of all kinds of materials entering the campus, especially imported materials and cold chain materials, and establishing and improving the centralized supervision and unified disinfection and detection mechanism of cold chain food in school canteens.

　　In addition, Zhejiang also requires that the work plan for the winter vacation and the next semester be prepared in advance, that students leave school in an orderly manner, that management services for students staying in school during the holidays be continued, that communication between home and school be strengthened, and that students’ holiday life be guided and arranged; Grasp the health status of teachers and students immediately, and provide the basis for the judgment of the new semester.

　　In addition, the education departments of some provinces have recently "named" the situation that some schools’ epidemic prevention work is not in place.

　　For example, recently, the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Education and the Provincial Health and Wellness Committee jointly held a video conference. At the meeting, it was reported that some schools in Nanchang High-tech Zone were short of epidemic prevention materials, and some schools in suichuan county did not regularly clean and disinfect public places such as canteens and toilets as required.

　　The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to strictly control the "three passes" outside the school gate, at the school gate and inside the school gate, and further strengthen the prevention and control of epidemic situation before and after the Spring Festival holiday.

　　In addition, major universities have recently held intensive work deployment meetings to knock the "alarm bell" in advance for the prevention and control of the winter vacation epidemic.

　　A few days ago, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications held a deployment meeting on campus epidemic prevention and control during the winter vacation. The school emphasizes that it is necessary to compact responsibilities at all levels, do a good job in campus closed management, students leaving school, teaching management, logistics support, material reserve, duty on duty, information submission, etc., strictly examine and approve the discipline of leaving school and returning to school, and build a defense line for campus epidemic prevention and control.

　　Capital Normal University previously issued a notice clearly stating that teachers and students "do not leave the country unless necessary". All secondary party organizations should strictly do a good job in the examination and approval of faculty leaving Beijing, and the student affairs department should strictly manage the record of leaving school. Adhere to the relatively closed campus management and the requirements of "returning to school conditions", strengthen the "Beijing Health Code" at the school gate and check the negative certificate of effective nucleic acid detection, and so on.

Data Map: Returning students receive love and epidemic prevention packages. Photo courtesy of Tongji University

　　Pay attention to these when you go home in winter vacation!

　　There have been sporadic epidemics in many places since the winter, but according to previous domestic disease control experts, although there is a large flow of people during the Spring Festival, as long as there are no infected people in the crowd, there will be no major epidemic with a wide spread.

　　For returning home for holidays, disease control experts and local education, health and other departments also gave some travel tips:

　　1. Don’t go to medium and high risk areas unless necessary.

　　2. Plan the return route, simplify the itinerary, pay attention to the changes in medium and high-risk areas in China, avoid transferring to transportation in medium and high-risk areas on the way, and do personal protection.

　　3. Return home from high-risk areas in China, pay attention to the relevant requirements such as nucleic acid detection certificate in the place of residence, and report the relevant situation to the community where the place of residence is located and the CDC in the jurisdiction after arriving at the destination.

　　4. Personal protection should be done in the process of returning home, and masks should be worn during the whole journey when taking public transport.

　　5. Pay attention to hand hygiene when traveling, and wash your hands frequently at stations, airports and other places.

　　6. Pay attention to personal hygiene on public transport, and cover your nose and mouth when sneezing.

　　7. During the Spring Festival, try to avoid going to the enclosed space with many people in the room, and reduce the gathering of relatives and friends and a large number of people.

　　8. Strengthen self-health monitoring. If you have symptoms such as fever, cough, diarrhea and fatigue, you should wear disposable medical masks and above, and immediately go to the fever clinic of the nearest designated hospital. Try to avoid taking public transportation during the medical treatment. Please take the initiative to inform the doctor of the travel history and contact history in detail when you see a doctor, so as to facilitate timely investigation.